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A new documentary series kicked off on the UK Discovery Channel yesterday. ‘Ways to Save the Planet‘ explores what happens when, in the channel’s own words, “what if?” meets “why not?”, as “some of the world’s leading scientists” put the most ambitious geo-engineering ideas to the test in order to tackle global climate change. The [...]
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Fellowtravellers is a radical new concept in mass transport which claims to offer an environmentally-friendly, economical and reliable alternative to the stresses and strains of traditional public transport and a genuine non-car travel option. It is an alternative, local, and responsive public transport system which puts the needs of the traveller at the heart of [...]
Back from our traditional Whitsun break, and time to take stock. After a surprisingly small amount of soul-searching I’ve decided to put Change Alley out of its misery. There are other projects that are more deserving of my attention right now.
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A report published recently in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles says that the amount of carbon locked away in frozen soils in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes could be as much as double previous estimates.
The paper, ‘Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region”, was written by scientists from research units in Canada, USA, Australia, Sweden and Russia. The abstract is available here, and the full report here.
Soils in the northern permafrost region comprise approximately 16% of global soil area. Previous studies’ estimates of the size of carbon pools have not accounted for deeper layers and pools. A four-year study of the latest research on permafrost, data from new drilling projects as well as the release of previously unpublished data from the Russian Academy of Sciences has led to a rethink of carbon levels. The total quantity of organic carbon in the northern permafrost region is now estimated to be 1672 Pg, of which approximately 88% occurs in what are currently perennially frozen soils and deposits. This 1672 Pg of organic carbon accounts for approximately 50% of the estimated global belowground organic carbon pool. [1 Pg, or petagram, is 1 billion metric tonnes]
In a statement to Reuters, Pep Canadell, report co-author and executive director of Australia’s Global Carbon Project, said:
“Massive amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils at high latitudes are increasingly vulnerable to exposure to the atmosphere.
“Projections show that almost all near-surface permafrost will disappear by the end of this century exposing large carbon stores to decomposition and release of greenhouse gases.”
Canadell claims that the melting of only 10% of the permafrost could lead to the release of an additional 80 parts per million of CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere, equivalent to a ‘global warming’ of about 0.7 degrees Celsius according to current models.
Climate processes such as this are a minefield of non-linear systems, and however much care is devoted to devising our computer models, new variables can always throw a spanner in the works. Heat generated by increased microbial activity in the soil could lead to sustained long-term emissions of CO2 and methane. In addition, lakes formed as the permafrost thaws would draw heat to deeper layers and bring methane to the surface from subterranean pockets.
OK, yes, I know. The word ‘estimate’ crops up a lot in all this. How could it not? Unless you know of a way of weighing the permafrost precisely and accurately, it’s inevitable. These figures are huge, and I’m sure there are people out there who don’t care to believe them. But even if this report is out by a factor of 10, this is still scary stuff, the sort of information that should be made available promptly to a wide audience. The abstract tells us that the report was submitted on 13th August 2008, accepted 3rd April 2009 and published 27th June 2009. Why does it take so long to perform peer reviews of important work like this?
Pete Smith @ July 1, 2009